>get home for lunch >dad says laptop is broken >mom was messing around with the wires downstairs or something >this could take a while since I don’t really know what I’m doing >shit.png >go into computer room with dad >open laptop >press power >computer starts >lets see what we can do >dad interrupts: >”Oh my god” >”You did it!” >”How’d you do that!” >”Was that the power button?” >areyoushittingme.wmv >”I’m so f*ckin’ stupid” >youcansaythatagain.mp4 > do a 360 turn and walk away
This will seem like just another bowling post, but it’s much more than that.
Tonight was the final night of the regular season.
Four teams make the playoffs.
We were in fourth going into tonight.
I was the reason we ended up in fifth place and missed the playoffs.
There’s no easy way to say it – I bowled 139, 129, and 168 for my worst series of the entire season when it counted most. We missed the playoffs by half a game.
We would have made the playoffs had I bowled 13 pins below my average tonight.
My excuse is that we bowled 7 games yesterday and my arm wasn’t recovered enough to bowl normal (my fault). Regardless, we needed to bowl well tonight, and everyone did (Wevs 160+, Tom 193, Jordan 213) except me.
Dealing with adversity is interesting. For some people it ruins them, and for others it makes them better in the long term. In the moment, it feels pretty bad that I blew it for the team in something that I’ve taken seriously in the past few months.
But in the long run, I think I’ll be better.
Lucky for my readers, since we missed the playoffs, there won’t be another bowling post for a while unless I bowl a 300 or something.
In just over an hour I’ll be driving a van full of people to Gettysburg for the American Odyssey Relay. I’m sure this year will be an experience as were the last two years, and I’m looking forward to it.
I’ll be unable to blog until Sunday, so until then, enjoy the rest of your week / weekend, and I’ll seeyuhlater.
I’m just going to dedicate a post a week to the bowling league.
We were in fifth place going into tonight and needed to a 4-0 sweep to ensure our spot in the payoffs / playoffs.
Game 1 was rocky. I started with a 151, and both Cohen’s were 160-170. Tom carried us with a ~200 and we took game 1.
Game 2 was a convincing win. I threw a 203 and Tom had another solid game of ~190. The other team struggled from the get go and we ran away with it.
Game 3 was trouble. We started slow and they started hot. We needed to step up at the end and that’s exactly what we did. I threw a 247 and Tom threw another ~200 game and we won it by ~20 pins for a 4-0 sweep.
Tom’s a bit more consistent with his 200, 190, 200, and for some reason I have great 2nd and 3rd games, but struggle in the first.
Evan just got a new ball and is throwing it differently so there’s a transition period, but this week was a solid debut and it’s only going to improve. Jordan has been off as of late, but if he returns to his ~180-200 average self the snakes are going to be a FORCE come the playoffs.
I wrote this post two months ago where I said I was going to get into shape. The following week I ran like 60 miles my leg started bothering me.
I’ve taken an entirely different approach to running since then. I run shorter distances 4-6 days a week and just run hard every time. I average ~30 miles a week at ~6:30 pace with a Sunday long run.
This week I did 5 runs, Wednesday – Sunday:
6 miles @ 6:18
5 miles @ 6:15
5 miles @ 6:50
6 miles @ 6:45
12 miles @ 6:22
I’ve never tried the Tom approach of Quality > Quantity, but it’s definitely more fun and the 12 miler yesterday makes me think I’m actually in better shape than I would have guessed. This also doesn’t bother my leg too much which is the main objective.
AOR is this weekend but after that I’ll sign up for some road race to see where I’m at.
It’s perfect running weather right now, make sure to get some miles in!
There are two arguments you can make in regards to the Rams and Eagles moving to the #1 and #2 picks respectively to select a quarterback. The first is this:
You don’t need a great quarterback to win a Super Bowl!
You need more than just a QB to win, but this list of Super Bowl winning QBs since 2001 shows a high correlation between stud QB and winning the Super Bowl (thank you Rob):
2015: Peyton Manning 2014: Tom Brady 2013: Russell Wilson 2012: Joe Flacco 2011: Eli Manning 2010: Aaron Rodgers 2009: Drew Brees 2008: Ben Roethlisberger 2007: Eli Manning 2006: Peyton Manning 2005: Ben Roethlisberger 2004: Tom Brady 2003: Tom Brady 2002: Brad Johnson (Bucs Defense) 2001: Tom Brady
Sure you could argue that Peyton sucked in 2015 and Flacco / Eli are only “pretty good”, but it’s not worth it.
The second argument is this:
Drafting a top 10 QB (and paying a big price) isn’t worth it.
Below is a graphic of the 24 quarterbacks picked in the top 10 between 2001 and 2015 (click to enlarge).
Below is my loose criteria for defining 1-5 5: Great – MVP Caliber / Super Bowl Champ. 4: Good – Not looking to upgrade at QB, this is your guy. 3: Okay – Can get you through the season but looking to upgrade. 2: Back-up – Not an NFL starter unless you’re absolutely desperate. 1: Bust – Total dud, contributed nearly 0 to team success.
Using this arbitrary scale, and the judgments Rob and I agreed upon for ranking QBs, you can see that the average QB picked in the top 10 is a 2.79 / 5.
Of course there are flaws. RG3 would have been a 4 if I did this after his rookie year. Jameis / Mariota / Bortles could all get shitty, but you have to start somewhere. Any disagreements?
There are twice as many busts in the top 10 as their are greats.
But this isn’t a revelation. Of course there’s a risk / reward here. So what if the QB you draft is a bust?
Here’s a breakdown of the 7 busts and how their team did in the 5 years following that draft.
Total 204 / 336
.378 win %
Four playoff appearances.
So shitty teams without a franchise QB stay shitty when they don’t get a franchise QB, though it is recoverable in some cases. I guess that’s not all that surprising. My guess is that drafting a DE or OL instead wouldn’t have made a huge difference in those win percentages.
Here’s a list of the 3 greats, and how their team fared in the 5 years following that draft
Giants (Eli Manning) 2004 – 2008: 47 / 33, four playoff appearances and a Super Bowl Victory Panthers (Cam Newton) 2011 – 2015: 47 / 33, three playoff appearances and a Super Bowl Loss Colts (Andrew Luck) 2012 – 2015: 41 / 23, three playoff appearances.
Total: 135 / 89
.603 win %
Ten playoff appearances
The difference is massive. Getting THE guy is an auto-playoff team and Super Bowl contender within 5 years, and most likely through 10 years.
But there’s only a 12.5% chance of getting THE guy.
So… is it worth it?
Fuck if I know. Personally, I think a 1/8 chance of getting a great QB for the next 10 years and a likely Super Bowl birth is worth it. If you bust, you have a few shitty years, but it’s the same idea as the Sixers – do you want to float around in mediocrity for a decade or do you want to take a chance at being really good?